Why Simple Forecasting is the Tool You Didn’t Know You Were Missing

A question for the travel advisors out there: what do you expect to book over the next six months?

You probably have a number that you’d like to reach, but based on how your business is actually performing, what is likely to happen?

That second question is where a forecast begins. Even if the answer falls short of what you want, it gives you something valuable: a starting point for deciding what to change.

This week, I challenge you to build a simple forecast using your own sales history, then put it to work. If you’re a former financial analyst, accountant, or just really enjoy Excel, this will likely seem overly simple. That’s because it is, and that’s the point. Too often we let complexity derail our efforts, or flat out prevent us from even starting something. So we’re going to keep it intentionally simple.

Start with what you already know

For this exercise, we’re going to forecast monthly travel sales for the next six months (November 2026 through May 2027). For simplicity, we’ll count sales in the month you make the booking, regardless of when the client travels.

To do this, start by pulling your booked sales for those same six months last year (November 2025 through May 2026). WorldVia Travel Network has a tool, Finances, that can help filter for this information specifically. From there, those numbers give you a starting point that reflects the seasonal pattern of your business. January typically looks much different from November.

Next, compare your last three completed months (July through September 2026) with the same three months last year (July through September 2025) to calculate your recent observed growth rate.

Suppose you booked $160,000 from July through September last year and $192,000 during those same months this year. Your recent sales growth rate is 20%.

$160K à $192K = 20% Growth

Apply that increase to the upcoming months. If you booked $40,000 last November, your starting forecast for this November is $48,000 (which is $40K x 1.2 = $48K). If last January was $60,000, your starting forecast for this January is $72,000.

You now have an estimate based on your seasonal history and recent momentum.

If you don’t have a full year of history, start with your average monthly sales over the last three to six completed months. Your forecast will become more useful as you build more history.

Give the numbers a reality check

What do you already know that could change the result?

Perhaps last year included a large group that won’t repeat. Maybe a new referral relationship is already bringing you qualified inquiries. Note any specific differences and adjust your forecast for those specific differences. If you aren’t sure how differences will impact your sales exactly, then make some assumptions.

Be careful with notions like “I’m going to market more.” That is an action you intend to take. Until you can connect them to a reasonable sales expectation, keep them in your action plan, but wait until you see results before incorporating into your forecast.

Next, we want to translate the forecast into bookings. If November’s forecast is $48,000 and your typical booking is $6,000, you’re expecting roughly eight bookings. Does that seem reasonable given your recent activity and the conversations you have underway?

Do a similar check for the other months.

Now use the forecast to make a decision

Suppose you want November sales of $60,000, but your forecast shows $48,000.

That $12,000 gap gives you something concrete to work on: at an average booking of $6,000, you need roughly two additional bookings.

If you normally convert one in three qualified inquiries into a booking, that suggests you’ll need about six additional qualified inquiries.

Now you can make a focused plan. Which past clients could you contact? Which open proposals deserve another conversation? Where could you generate those additional inquiries?

Keep your starting forecast visible, write down the actions you choose, and track whether they produce the activity you expected. As evidence develops, then you update the forecast.

A weaker month ahead might also influence whether you commit to an expense. A busy month might tell you to prepare more client communications in advance.

Come back to it every month

Compare your actual results with your forecast. Ask what caused the difference and whether it changes your expectations for the months ahead.

A disappointing forecast can still be extremely useful because it reveals a gap while you still have time to do something about it. You don’t need to predict the future perfectly. You just need a reasonable estimate that helps you make better decisions today.